Shortly after the results of the presidential election election in Guatemala became known and attempts had already started to discredit and ban the Semilla Party from the second round run-off, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) published a piece (11th July), titled Five Things to Know About the Guatemalan Elections, written by Ana María Méndez-Dardón and Corie Welch.
1. The outcome of Guatemala’s Presidential Election defied all predictions. What do the vote results tell us? Despite widespread dissatisfaction, the preliminary results announced by the TSE indicated that presidential candidates Sandra Torres (15.86 percent) and Bernardo Arévalo (11.77 percent) would make it to the runoff election in August.
2. Why have results not been confirmed yet? Are the elections and democracy at risk? Is the runoff suspended?
On July 1, the Constitutional Court suspended the announcements of results requesting that votes be verified. Politically motivated complaints have impacted electoral integrity and legal certainty.
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On July 7, following the court’s ruling, the electoral boards cross-checked precinct vote tally sheets from the June 25 election and reported slight percentage variations, confirming the preliminary results. However, the TSE stated that while there are pending administrative and judicial processes, results would not be official until the courts certify that the ruling to cross-check the records has been fully complied with.
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Elections and democracy are at risk as results haven’t been made official yet; even though the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) issued a resolution on July 10, confirming the compliance of the TSE with the CC’s ruling and provisionally rejecting appeals to suspend the process. An official announcement, however, is still pending.
According to the TSE, the runoff is not suspended and it is scheduled for August 20 but without official confirmation on behalf of candidates, the situation remains uncertain.
3. Were the elections “free” and/or “fair” according to international standards? What have observation missions, both national and international, reported about the day of the election?
International standards were not fully met as three candidates were blocked from running. The EU also noted an “intimidating environment for the media” that before the election “resulted in self-censorship and limited journalists’ access to information and their freedom to report during the electoral process.”
During the election day, both the European Union (EU) and the Organization of American States (OAS) electoral observation missions observed a “satisfactory election day” and found no evidence of fraud or major irregularities that would call the results into question. Domestic observers also validated the process and concluded that there is no reason to doubt the election results.
In response to fraud allegations and pending legal complaints, the OAS and EU expressed their concerns on July 2, urging the state of Guatemala to respect the election results and honor the will of the people. On July 8, after observing the vote count verification hearings, the OAS verified that there were no irregularities in the June 25 election results.
4. Guatemalans also voted for members of Congress and representatives at the municipal level. Are the results as surprising as in the presidential elections? What are the main challenges in this election?
Unlike the presidential election, the congressional and municipal elections yielded more predictable results, as establishment parties maintained control of the legislature and local governments. Of the 160 representatives elected to Congress, President Giammattei’s Vamos party won the most seats with 39, followed by Sandra Torres’s UNE party with 28 and Bernardo Arévalo’s party Movimiento Semilla with 23. The remainder of the seats were split between a collection of candidates from right-leaning parties with connections to establishment politics and a history of brokering deals with parties like UNE and Vamos.
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In the municipalities, establishment parties Vamos, Cabal, and UNE maintained control, together winning over half of the 340 mayor seats throughout the country. Municipal governments play a key role in the distribution of state funds for infrastructure projects and access to state resources. The Vamos political network has been accused of having links to organized crime and drug trafficking as well as granting favors and projects to corrupt networks to facilitate money laundering.
5. In a context marked by democratic backsliding, an anti-corruption candidate who promotes human rights could win the presidency. Why are people so surprised about Arévalo’s election? If elected, what challenges could lie ahead?
Following a period of setbacks in the fight against corruption and impunity, the election results clearly show that Guatemalans expressed their rejection of the political system. It remains to be seen whether a candidate such as Arévalo could restore democratic values and promote human rights. But historically, the Movimiento Semilla party has not been connected to the entrenched political networks with long historical ties to corruption, organized crime, or the dispossession of Indigenous communities.
In fact, Arévalo’s father Juan José Arévalo was Guatemala’s first democratically elected president that ushered in an era of sweeping social and constitutional reforms between 1944 and 1954 known as the “Democratic Spring.” Arévalo’s party– Movimiento Semilla, or the Seed Movement–was born out of another moment of structural reforms in Guatemala in 2015.
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If Semilla wins the Presidency, it will be up against a divided Congress, in which it does not hold the majority, a co-opted court system, and strong resistance from elites connected to the military and private sector. The road to democracy continues to be long.
You can read the full piece, with links, here, Five Things to Know About the Guatemalan Elections.
Categories: Accompaniment, Corruption, Criminalisation, Guatemala, Human Rights, Impunity, Justice, Presidential Elections, Report
Guatemala Solidarity Network 
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