Rachel A. Schwartz and Anita Isaacs write in the Journal of Democracy about the Presidential election in Guatemala and how, despite the anti-democracrtic wrangling of the corrupt state and its allies (pacto de corruptos), the result returned a huge surprise in the form of Bernardo Arévalo. Prior to the election, the authorities made great strides in banning any candidate who might be seen to challenge the corruption destroying democracy in Guatemala but, somehow, the electorate effectively found a way to show their anger at the elites.
Guatemala’s 2023 elections were expected to be a high watermark for rising authoritarianism in the country. Despite multiparty competition, the ruling regime undertook antidemocratic maneuvers to subvert meaningful contestation. Before voters went to the polls in the June 25 first round, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the attorney-general’s office (MP), and the courts manufactured electoral violations to disqualify antiestablishment candidates from across the political spectrum.
The manipulation of the electoral arena was just one of the methods that President Alejandro Giammattei had used since 2020 to deepen authoritarian rule under color of law. The distortion of the electoral landscape followed a vicious campaign to criminalize the public authorities and civil society leaders who had led the struggle against impunity for corruption and human-rights abuses. Dozens of former judicial officials, journalists, and activists were detained or forced into exile.
Thus it seemed all but certain that the 2023 election cycle would only accelerate democratic backsliding in this Central American country of eighteen million. Yet observers both at home and abroad were stunned when little-known reformer, congressional deputy, and former diplomat Bernardo Arévalo—the last antisystem candidate standing—finished second in the 22-candidate first round. That was enough to launch him into the presidential runoff against three-time contender and former first lady Sandra Torres, who won almost 16 percent. Arévalo had been polling at only 3 percent, making his electoral surge one of the biggest that Latin America has seen in the last decade. 1 His Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement) party, which held a mere seven seats in the 2019–23 Congress, more than tripled its seat share by winning 23 of the unicameral legislature’s 160 seats.
In response, the ruling regime and its allies mobilized the accustomed judicial instruments. On dubious grounds, the Constitutional Court ordered an election audit, but this found no evidence of fraud. Enlisting a corrupt criminal-court judge, the MP called for Semilla’s disqualification and sought to criminalize party organizers as well as the election officials who certified the first-round results.
[…]
The ability of Guatemala’s citizens to counter electoral authoritarianism in the 2023 contest has been nothing short of remarkable. Against the odds, they have channeled broad feeling against the establishment into overwhelming support for the only prodemocratic option available, stirring hopes that it may indeed be possible to transform how politics is done.
You can read the full article, posted on Project Muse website, here, How Guatemala Defied the Odds.
Categories: Corruption, Guatemala, Human Rights, Impunity, Indigenous peoples, Justice, Legal, Presidential Elections, Solidarity in Action, Solidarity in Action/Guatemala
Guatemala Solidarity Network 
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